Author Topic: 選狼還是選獅子  (Read 10903 times)

Offline kido

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選狼還是選獅子
« on: 27 March 2010, 11:29:04 »
Got this email and find it's somewhat interesting .... can you tell what book is it?  Or just a fake referral?



Quote
美國最暢銷書-選狼還是選獅子

上帝把兩群羊放在草原上,一群在南,一群在北。
上帝還給羊群找了兩種天敵,一種是獅子,一種是狼。
上帝對羊群說:「如果你們要狼,就給一隻,任它隨意咬你們。
如果你們要獅子,就給兩頭,你們可以在兩頭獅子中任選一頭,還可以隨時更換。」

這道題的問題就是:如果你也在羊群中,你是選狼還是選獅子?很容易做出選擇吧?好吧! 記住你的選擇,接著往下看。

南邊羊想,獅子比狼兇猛得多,還是要狼吧! 於是,它們就要了一隻狼。
北邊羊想,獅子雖然比狼兇猛得多,但我們有選擇權,還是要獅子吧! 於是,它們就要了兩頭獅。

狼進了南邊羊群後,就開始吃羊。狼身體小,食量也小,一隻羊夠它吃幾天了。這樣羊群幾天才被追殺一次。

北邊羊挑選了一頭獅子,另一頭則留在上帝那裡。
這頭獅子進入羊群後,也開始吃羊。獅子不但比狼兇猛,而且食量驚人,每天都要吃一隻羊。這樣羊群就天天都要被追殺,驚恐萬狀,羊群趕緊請上帝換一頭獅子。
不料,上帝保管的那頭獅子一直沒有吃東西,飢餓難耐,撲進羊群,比前面那頭獅子咬得更瘋狂。羊群一天到晚只是逃命,連草都快吃不成了。
南邊羊群慶幸自己選對了天敵,又嘲笑北邊的羊群沒有眼光。
北邊羊群非常後悔,向上帝大倒苦水,要求更換天敵,改要一隻狼。
上帝說:「天敵一旦確定,就不能更改,必須世代相隨,你們唯一的權利是在兩頭獅子中選擇。」
北邊羊群只好把兩頭獅子不斷更換。可兩頭獅子同樣凶殘,換哪一頭都比南邊羊群悲慘得多,它們索性不換了,讓一頭獅子吃得膘肥體壯,另一頭獅子則餓得精瘦。
眼看那頭瘦獅子快要餓死了,羊群才請上帝換一頭。
這頭瘦獅子經過長時間的飢餓後,慢慢悟出了一個道理:自己雖然兇猛異常,一百隻羊都不是對手,可是自己的命運是操縱在羊群手裡的。羊群隨時可以把自己送回上帝那裡,讓自己飽受飢餓的煎熬,甚至有可能餓死。
想通這個道理後,瘦獅子就對羊群特別客氣,只吃死羊和病羊,凡是健康的羊它都不吃了。

羊群喜出望外,有幾隻小羊提議乾脆固定要瘦獅子,不要那頭肥獅子了。
一隻老公羊提醒說:「瘦獅子是怕我們送它回上帝那裡挨餓,才對我們這麼好。
萬一肥獅子餓死了,我們沒有了選擇的餘地,瘦獅子很快就會恢復凶殘的本性。」
羊群覺得老羊說得有理,為了不讓另一頭獅子餓死,它們趕緊把它換回來。

原先肥壯的那頭獅子,已餓得剩下皮包骨頭了,並且也懂得了自己的命運是操縱在羊群手裡的道理。為了能在草原上待久一點,它竟百般討好起羊群來。
而那頭被送交給上帝的獅子,則難過得流下了眼淚。北邊羊群在經歷了重重磨難後,終於過上了自由自在的生活。
南邊羊的處境卻越來越悲慘了,那隻狼因為沒有競爭對手,羊群又無法更換它,它就胡作非為,每天都要咬死幾十隻羊,這隻狼早已不吃羊肉了,它只喝羊的血,還不准羊叫,那隻叫就立刻咬死那隻。南邊的羊群只能在心中哀歎:「早知道這樣,還不如要兩頭獅子。」

這是一道非常簡單的選擇題,據我多次親自嘗試的經驗,如果問歐美的朋友,大多數人都會選獅子,但是如果拿來問我們自己華人,大多數人都會選狼(包括我自己)。
 
領悟到了嗎? 握有決定權的才有生機,否則只有任人宰割的份兒了…!
潛能密碼:當你覺得你的快樂是別人帶給你的,那麼,你將永遠不快樂,因為,你必須時時仰望著別人的臉色與情緒來決定你的喜怒哀樂。
當你覺得你是所有快樂的滿足的來源,那麼,你就是那個時時處於快樂天堂領悟的人,"你 決定你自己的一切。"
Hey, diddle, diddle ! The cat and the fiddle.

Offline chin

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Re: 選狼還是選獅子
« Reply #1 on: 27 March 2010, 12:32:58 »
I don't know if it's really related to a real book.

But I won't take the reference to any book seriously, since this story is using some game theory to promote a political idea. The biggest problem of applying the idea to human society is the basic assumption - that everyone is long-term rational with perfect information to make decision. In real life, this is not the case lots of times.

Few years ago I read The March of Folly - a book trying to explore the reason why people collectively make decision that is bad for them. Either in the same book or in other books that I read, the conclusion seems to come down to this:

- if the outcome of a collective decision is clear & quick, the public can make very rational decisions.
- if the benefit of a collective decision is not immediately clear, the public may not be able to make rational decisions.

Example 1, in horse racing, the result is know within a few minutes, and the benefit of right decision is very clear. In this case, the public collectively allocate money according to the winning probability exactly, thus exhibite a very rational behavior in voting with their $$$.

Example 2, in an election, the benefit of putting someone in charge is not clear for many years to come, thus guys like George W Bush & Dick Cheney got elected. (Of course, it's still way too early to judge how beneficial to the American people are the presidency of GWB.)

Back to your story. It's very clear the story is made up to deliver a political message. It's a powerful message because the idea is simple and seems logical. But you have to understand that both the sheeps and the lions are behaving super rationally, even to the point of accepting sufferings in the short term.

People aren't that simple. But in any case, thanks for posting the story. Any story that makes you think is a good one, whether agreed to the message or not.

(BTW a small thing but I have to say it. The opening of the story really bothers me. The main story is interesting enough without reference to "the best selling book in the US". This kind of reference almost look like the advertising we see in the mainland - "famous brand in US/Europe/etc..." I really think the original story is meant for spreading the message to the mainland Chinese.)

P.S. I did stop at the 2nd paregraph to made my choice. And I chose the lions, but for the wrong reason because I misunderstood the conditions. I thought both lions would present at the same time.

Offline kido

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Re: 選狼還是選獅子
« Reply #2 on: 27 March 2010, 16:13:21 »
Yes, agree, the first thing I related to was Game Theory, and later I think this is trying to deliver a political message, and a slogan pop up to my mind immediately : 有得間(揀),你先係老闆!
« Last Edit: 28 March 2010, 01:10:31 by kido »
Hey, diddle, diddle ! The cat and the fiddle.

Offline Lap

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Re: 選狼還是選獅子
« Reply #3 on: 28 March 2010, 00:59:42 »
This is a really interesting one. I did chose wolf. 1. because I'm not sure what's meaning of choose between 2 lions, 2nd, I believe less sheep need to feedup the wolf.

Back the lion situation, I don't think the story ends... it will go like this. One day, the lion already in the sheep think a way not to go back to heaven and starving. So he start talk to SOME of the sheep. Telling them if you keep me here, I promise will NOT eat any you and only kill those want to send me back AND in returen, you can get the best grass and superior than other sheeps. Let's work together to rule over other sheep.... :-P

Offline chin

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Re: 選狼還是選獅子
« Reply #4 on: 28 March 2010, 01:47:05 »
Haha, that's where real politicking starts... when ONE lion start negotiating with SOME sheeps to share power, at the expenses of the other lion and other sheeps.  ;D

Offline hangchoi

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Re: 選狼還是選獅子
« Reply #5 on: 28 March 2010, 11:18:24 »
Like Lap, I choose Wolf.....because.....Lion works alone while Wolf works in group......Picking a lone wolf means it cannot work well and the sheeps can defend the lone wolf well (I think).

However, my wife Tina makes a very smart choice, but funny......She chooses Lion.....She said....Lion will take a while to check the circumstances before attack..When lion starts running to the sheeps, they yells to god for replacement. Then another lion comes, and this lion will take a while before attack again, and will be replaced when the lion starts running to the sheeps....... :D Tricky try.


「吾心信其可行,則移山倒海之難,終有成功之日。吾心信其不可行,則反掌折枝之易,亦無收效之期也。」

Offline chin

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Re: 選狼還是選獅子
« Reply #6 on: 28 March 2010, 11:56:54 »
Tina's logic is clever, in a "cartoonish" way, like a IQ question in a magazine.  :)

Offline hangchoi

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Re: 選狼還是選獅子
« Reply #7 on: 28 March 2010, 19:51:51 »
She appreciates your comment.

Anyhow, it seems that we 2 focus on the operation side......
「吾心信其可行,則移山倒海之難,終有成功之日。吾心信其不可行,則反掌折枝之易,亦無收效之期也。」

Offline chin

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Re: 選狼還是選獅子
« Reply #8 on: 28 March 2010, 21:37:35 »
I sort of translate the story to my kids, and they also thought like Tina - distract the lions enough, and switch at the last moment.

Offline kido

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Re: 選狼還是選獅子
« Reply #9 on: 30 March 2010, 10:09:44 »
Forgot to mention my answer. 

My answer is wolf, but for a different reason and is straight forward: to feed 1 wolf is easier than to feed 2 lions.
Hey, diddle, diddle ! The cat and the fiddle.