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Author Topic: Outliers, by Malcolm Gladwell  (Read 25205 times)
hangchoi
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« Reply #10 on: 12 January 2010, 13:01:29 »

Well...whatever the strategy people are using, I think the most important thing is where to put the line and this makes everyone has different strategies....
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wongyan
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« Reply #11 on: 13 January 2010, 05:41:22 »

so it is really similar to the "counting strategy" people used when playing blackjack in casino.  i.e. when they found the number of 10s in the deck is higher than normal, they wager more.
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« Reply #12 on: 23 January 2010, 01:37:16 »

Referring to my post of Taleb's strategy, I wonder if he was playing the equivalent of 末日輪 in the HK markets?

Using the terminology in The Greatest Trade Ever, this strategy is Negative Carry like buying the CDS on US housing 4 years ago. And negative carry generally makes us uncomfortable psychologically.
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kido
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« Reply #13 on: 03 September 2010, 11:54:32 »

Yes, it's an interesting light reading. I picked up two of his books (Outliers & Tipping Point) at the recent promotion. Outliers is more interesting reading for me than the other one.


Due to this thread I bought the 'Tipping Point' few months ago. Not until few days ago I started turning the pages.  Glad to find that it's sort of a magazine-style light reading, some opinions are worth to look deeper academically. [I don't know whether it's my problem or not, I feel the book should have some pictures/illustrations to ease my effort to understand his descriptions ]

Overall the book is a story telling style and it gave you much of his viewpoints, for example relaying(relating) unrelated events.  But it's this style sometimes make me uncomfortable: he just laid out the facts without further supports.  And the most serous problem of his judgement was I think he misunderstood the cause and effect by using statistics inappropriately : 2 high correlated events don't imply one is the cause of the other, or vice versa.

« Last Edit: 03 September 2010, 18:56:16 by kido » Logged

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wongyan
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« Reply #14 on: 03 September 2010, 12:25:27 »

2 high correlated events don't imply one is the cause of the other, or vice versa

well said. 

e.g. people weigh inversely proportional to temp in winter

but we cannot say people's weight changes the temp. 
lower temp may also lead to big-eating or heavier clothes so it is not conclusive neither.
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Never stop Learning, Never stop Earning!!
哲人無憂,智者常樂。並不是因為所愛的一切他都擁有了,而是所擁有的一切他都愛。
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« Reply #15 on: 03 September 2010, 13:23:20 »

Yes, it's an interesting light reading. I picked up two of his books (Outliers & Tipping Point) at the recent promotion. Outliers is more interesting reading for me than the other one.

Overall the book is a story telling style and it gave you much of his viewpoints, for example relaying unrelated events.  But it's this style sometimes make me uncomfortable: he just laid out the facts without further supports.  And the most serous problem of his judgement was I think he misunderstood the cause and effect by using statistics inappropriately : 2 high correlated events don't imply one is the cause of the other, or vice versa.

I've read some of Malcolm Gladwell's articles, and heard him on the Radio Lab podcast (a very interesting popular science podcast).  His stories are very interesting, and engaging, but I think he sometimes falls into the trap of what Nassim Taleb calls the Narrative Fallacy.  But, then again he wouldn't sell millions of books if the stories he told were rigorously academic Smiley
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kido
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« Reply #16 on: 05 September 2010, 01:42:46 »

I've read some of Malcolm Gladwell's articles, and heard him on the Radio Lab podcast (a very interesting popular science podcast).  His stories are very interesting, and engaging, but I think he sometimes falls into the trap of what Nassim Taleb calls the Narrative Fallacy.  But, then again he wouldn't sell millions of books if the stories he told were rigorously academic Smiley

Agree, wiki'ed Narrative Fallacy.

That sounds interesting that we come across Teleb's name several times when we discuss Gladwell's book(s).  Chin mentioned that Gladwell interviewed Teleb, but then Gladwell himeself fell into the Narrative Fallacy which the term was invented by Teleb.  Smiley  [ maybe I should read the Black Swan sometimes later... ]
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« Reply #17 on: 03 February 2013, 23:17:43 »

Went to HMV to buy a few DVDs and found that they are selling books too.

Then I bought another book from Malcolm Gladwell, Tipping Point. It is just HKD49. Now it is on my reading list......  Grin
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« Reply #18 on: 04 February 2013, 01:48:44 »

Went to HMV to buy a few DVDs and found that they are selling books too.

Then I bought another book from Malcolm Gladwell, Tipping Point. It is just HKD49. Now it is on my reading list......  Grin

Cheap now.
Is HMV going under?
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hangchoi
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« Reply #19 on: 04 February 2013, 08:38:19 »

Cheap now.
Is HMV going under?

I would say they need cash, desperately need cash. They are selling their inventory at discount up to 50%, some local movie DVDs are selling at even higher discount.

I bought a few DVDs too, none of them costs me more than HKD35.

It may be a good time to enrich your collection.
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「吾心信其可行,則移山倒海之難,終有成功之日。吾心信其不可行,則反掌折枝之易,亦無收效之期也。」
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