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書中自有黃金屋 - Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets
kido:
--- Quote from: chin on 03 April 2009, 14:55:26 ---The books arrived today. Alan Woods co-authored one of the shorter papers in the Handbook.
--- End quote ---
Wow, what a book. At first glance I thought you mean in HK$, shortly after I found it's in US$.
kido:
--- Quote from: 陳文 on 12 September 2009, 00:16:49 ---Wow, what a book. At first glance I thought you mean in HK$, shortly after I found it's in US$.
--- End quote ---
Right, that's the book you mentioned.
http://books.google.com/books?id=HX2xapyqENsC&lpg=PP1&dq=Efficiency%20of%20Racetrack%20Betting%20Markets&hl=zh-TW&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q=&f=false
chin:
Almost the whole book?!
kido:
No, just some pages.... otherwise no one will buy the book.
Particular interested in Bill Benter's paper because he's an famous quan who really built a profitable model.
Just a thought of so many kinds of 'predictions', there are 2 kinds of number crunching which I think they're fundamentally different.
(A) People who build models based solely on the odds/pools/etc figures and construct math. model to fit the past data and use the model to find out any "odd" in the odds and bet on these "odd" such that his expect return > 0.
(B) People who build models based on past horse performance, and construct math models to model its behaviour and use these whole bunches of models to predict the chances of winning and/or their ranking.
For (A), they're not really interested in finding who is the winner, but care which betting strategy (or combination of strategies) provides an edge to the betting. For (B), they're actively seeking the winner, they care the winner. Also, I think there might be (C) , which is the combination of (A)+(B).
chin:
Using invesment market terms
(A) = technical analysis (think guys who look at price charts and talk "shoulders")
(B) = fundamental analysis (think guys who visit companies and read financial statements and create ratios)
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