I came across this article last week about how junkets work in Macau. The Seeking Alpha article is a bit of a promotion for the stock, but the business description should be correct. I also found a Daiwa research on the same stock.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/307864-asia-entertainment-wealth-play-with-high-octane-business-model-set-for-rapid-growthSome of the interesting numbers about this VIP room operator:
- 30 gaming tables in 3 casinos
- US$2 billion betting turnover per month! That's HK$17 million per day per table!
- Revenue is 1.25% commission of US$2b, or HK$200 million per month.
- Major cost is rebate to agents, @ ~0.95%. So they keep $47m/mth before operating expenses.
- Baccarat the probably the most popular game, with house edge 2.85% (see Daiwa report). The house kept 1.6% after commission to junkets.
- At US$2b turnover with 2.85% house edge, the hold (gamblers money loss on the table) should be US$57m/mth!
- I believe collection from losing gambler is the highest risk in this business. How much of the US$57m/mth is collected?
For me, the most interesting would be the actual collection rate, but none of the two reports seems to have any number. The Daiwa report says "major shareholders have guaranteed to absorb personally any credit costs". Does it mean that they are popping up the P&L? And why?
Or maybe the major shareholders are having side bets that's supposedly very common among junkets, and supposedly amount to the same or even larger than the reported turnover. However these side bets are not counted in the official report, with all 2.85% profit margin going to the junket operators. If true, the side bet income may be more than covered the credit cost to the major shareholders.