Public Zone 公開區 > Bookwyrm 書蟲天地
Outliers, by Malcolm Gladwell
hangchoi:
Well...whatever the strategy people are using, I think the most important thing is where to put the line and this makes everyone has different strategies....
wongyan:
so it is really similar to the "counting strategy" people used when playing blackjack in casino. i.e. when they found the number of 10s in the deck is higher than normal, they wager more.
chin:
Referring to my post of Taleb's strategy, I wonder if he was playing the equivalent of 末日輪 in the HK markets?
Using the terminology in The Greatest Trade Ever, this strategy is Negative Carry like buying the CDS on US housing 4 years ago. And negative carry generally makes us uncomfortable psychologically.
kido:
--- Quote from: chin on 13 September 2009, 02:12:04 ---Yes, it's an interesting light reading. I picked up two of his books (Outliers & Tipping Point) at the recent promotion. Outliers is more interesting reading for me than the other one.
--- End quote ---
Due to this thread I bought the 'Tipping Point' few months ago. Not until few days ago I started turning the pages. Glad to find that it's sort of a magazine-style light reading, some opinions are worth to look deeper academically. [I don't know whether it's my problem or not, I feel the book should have some pictures/illustrations to ease my effort to understand his descriptions ]
Overall the book is a story telling style and it gave you much of his viewpoints, for example relaying(relating) unrelated events. But it's this style sometimes make me uncomfortable: he just laid out the facts without further supports. And the most serous problem of his judgement was I think he misunderstood the cause and effect by using statistics inappropriately : 2 high correlated events don't imply one is the cause of the other, or vice versa.
wongyan:
2 high correlated events don't imply one is the cause of the other, or vice versa
well said.
e.g. people weigh inversely proportional to temp in winter
but we cannot say people's weight changes the temp.
lower temp may also lead to big-eating or heavier clothes so it is not conclusive neither.
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